Welcome to a new bitcoin prediction. Not much time has passed since my previous analysis, but there are good reasons to bring Bitcoin price back into focus. Because it could have developed extremely quickly and already prepared the next bullish upward rally.
The status quo of my bitcoin forecast
I made a mistake in my last bitcoin prediction, which luckily I saw for myself and which I want to correct here and now. But before that, let’s review the results as they are very relevant and Bitcoin’s price action since then has provided additional points of information.
In last week’s analysis, I identified two possible scenarios. As an aside, I discussed the impulse wave as the main diagonal. Per this bullish outlook, bitcoin price is currently floating in an extended wave 2 flat.
In my last bitcoin prediction, I predicted the $24,000 price level at the time:
A correction below $22,000 would be expected, but not necessarily below $20,000.
The leading cryptocurrency fell to $20,700 after just 3 days and confirmed the prediction shortly after.
A possible explanation of the wave structure
As the Bitcoin chart shows, the course has indeed reached one of the forecast price levels. The move down itself may already be complete, but personally I wouldn’t rule out further downside. Thus, shaft C can be completed in this design with yet another speed reduction.
But now we come to the part where I made a mistake in the previous bitcoin prediction.
a small but important difference
In the second part of my bitcoin prediction, I talked about a possible zigzag move. Accordingly, bitcoin price will be in a corrective phase to continue its overall bearish trend.
However, since I placed the wave structure in potential wave C, they don’t match the chart pattern shown on the chart there. Because according to Elliott Wave Theory, this ascending wedge formation can only be a diagonal. However, my classification of the wave structure was that of a large diagonal. This chart pattern may not be in wave C of the zigzag, but it may be in wave A, if at all.
A diagonal in a wave C must be an end diagonal, and although it looks strikingly similar to its lively counterpart, it differs in its internal wave structure. Since waves 1, 3 and 5 in a main diagonal should be a 5-part inductive wave, the last diagonal consists only of a 3-part corrective wave.
This is a subtle but important difference due to the location of each diagonal type. Since a final diagonal can only occur in a C or Wave 5 wave, the same is true for a main diagonal for an A or Wave 1 wave.
This leads us to the question of whether my classification of individual shaft parts is correct. Because if this is true, it means that the price of Bitcoin is currently in an extremely bullish phase. This would lead to a completely different interpretation and therefore Bitcoin prediction. Let’s see how it looks in detail.
A Bitcoin forecast that has it all
If it is indeed a main diagonal, it allows only one conclusion. Bitcoin’s price has made two consecutive waves in the last two months. This means that the recent wave 1 is related to wave 3 as a sub-wave in an uptrend.
Bullish Bitcoin Prediction
Predicting that Bitcoin will emerge from this wave count will be extremely optimistic. The latest wave 1 is already measuring 1.6 times larger than the previous wave 1. This suggests that wave 3 will be quite large.
Where can I find bitcoin quotes?
The beauty of this interpretation is that it has an obviously invalid point. If the price of bitcoin falls below $18,700 then this wave counts and hence the predictions of the extreme bitcoin bullish move should be dismissed. However, there is much more to do with this wave count.
According to Hash Ribbon, you should buy Bitcoin
The recently discussed bullish forecast for Bitcoin is supported by the Hash Ribbon Indicator. Because according to him, the recent capitulation of the miners is over and a clear buy signal for the Bitcoin course.
Hash Band Indicator
The Hash Ribbon Indicator has popped up in a few bitcoin predictions of mine in the past. This is because it has proven to be a fairly reliable indicator of price growth. More specifically, it is a sign that the miner capitulation is over and you should buy Bitcoin.
In the April 27, 2020 Bitcoin Prediction, I spoke of the end of the Bitcoin capitulation as a bullish indicator. That was right after the pandemic crash and the start of the last bull rally, when the price of bitcoin was still around $7,700.
The following and last time the indicator was mentioned in my Bitcoin forecast of August 11, 2021. After that, the leading cryptocurrency rose again from around $46,000 to $69,000.
That doesn’t mean that someone buying bitcoins now is 100% right. After all, no indicator is infallible. However, it is a serious sign which, combined with my latest findings, paints a bullish picture at a time when everyone is currently expecting the crash to continue.
But finally, let’s take another critical look at the whole thing.
Critical Review of Bitcoin Prediction
The big question is whether the wave structure in the last diagonal can be counted as the last diagonal in the zigzag movement. The answer is probably yes.
I have made the following calculations only roughly and have not broken them down into smaller time diagrams. But counting a final diagonal might still look like this.
The risk of another crash should not be underestimated with this Bitcoin forecast. With the latest insights, the Hash Ribbon indicator, as well as the other bullish indicators we’ve discussed at Bitcoin-Buy, I’m now inclined to take a more bullish stance while everyone else looks to the next crash.
But that’s my personal opinion based on the current situation.