The expert explained that the Russian economy is a dumpster fire, but the Kremlin is still clinging to hopes of a victory in Ukraine: Despite sanctions against Russia following an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February, the ruble has actually recovered – hitting 52.3 against the dollar on Wednesday, up almost 1.3 percent the previous day and its strongest since May 2015. . In fact, the ruble has become so strong that Russia’s central bank is taking steps to weaken it, fearing it would make its exports less competitive.
Just last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his country’s economy was recovering from “reckless and insane” sanctions and that efforts to harm Russia’s economy “hadn’t worked.”
“Russian companies and government officials have acted constructively and professionally,” Putin said during his speech at the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg. “We are normalizing the economic situation. We have stabilized the financial markets, the banking system, the trading system.”
However, Russia’s projected annual inflation rate remains at 16.7 percent, and the war in Ukraine will not improve the situation – certainly not in the short term.
The Russian economy is in serious trouble
“The Russian economy is a giant dumpster fire. The sanctions will exacerbate the problems in their economy they already had. The Russians don’t have children anymore and their life expectancy is terrible.” Harry KasianisoThe president of the Rogue States Project told Fox Business’s Neil Cavuto on Wednesday.
“Russia is a waning power in the long term,” Kazianis continued. “It looks good in the short to medium term, but bad in the long term.”
Russia’s birth rate has fallen significantly over the decades. The country, which suffered numerous casualties during World War II, has one of the lowest male-to-female ratios in the world, and this is particularly true for the elderly. The recent war in Ukraine will certainly not “fix” this pyramid and could affect the number of births and population growth in Russia.
The fact is that the war in Ukraine basically has no end in sight, but only worsens the economic situation for Russia. Ukrainian officials have argued that the war will not end until the last Russian is expelled from its soil, but that’s a lofty goal even with Western help.
Nonetheless, Russia too was forced to downplay its goals.
How Ukraine could end the war
When asked how the war will end, Kazianis was blunt, suggesting that it was possible neither side could agree that the conflict was over, calling it “the end of the Korean War.” It is mentioned that there could be “some kind of truce”.
Putin’s forces will focus on the Donbass region as conquering all of Ukraine is now considered impossible.
“If he tried that, it could spell the end of his reign,” Kazianis explained. “He will double Donbass, try to conquer that part of the country and essentially declare war or his special military operation will end, and then give Ukrainians the courage to keep fighting.”
Ukrainians may be forced to accept this agreement.
“You really have to recognize them maybe, and that means Vladimir Putin has conquered the industrial heartland of Ukraine, and that would be a very sad ending,” Kazianis continued. “No matter how many weapons we give to Ukrainians and how much money we give to Ukrainians.”
In other words, it would be a war that both sides could lose. Ukraine will be forced to leave the region; Instead of restoring the “glory” of the former Soviet Union, the conflict will only show the world that Russia is a nation that is slowly losing its place on the world stage. It is a war that has devastated much of Ukraine and a war that will completely cripple the Russian economy.
Peter Susieu, who has served as senior editor since 1945, is a Michigan-based author who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites. He writes regularly on military hardware, the history of firearms, cybersecurity and international affairs. Peter is also a contributing writer for Forbes.