from her june
In the first half of this year, measures against the COVID-19 pandemic have hit China’s economy hard. The largest city in China, Shanghai, was hardest hit. The citywide lockdown, which lasted more than two months, is unprecedented in Shanghai’s urban economy, social development and city government. Such an experience becomes part of the indelible memory of the city.
Overall, China, including Shanghai, is now slowly recovering from the effects of the pandemic. Efforts have been made to stabilize the economic market and gradually restore the vitality of urban trade and employment. From an economic point of view, the economic data from Shanghai for the second quarter has shown us the magnitude of the economic impact of the measures taken to combat COVID-19.
According to data released on June 17 on the official website of the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics, Shanghai’s above-specified industrial enterprises completed a total industrial output value of RMB 234.124 billion in May 2022, down 27.6% from the same month is . Last year. The production and sales ratio of the industry was 100.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the same month last year. The export distribution value of industrial enterprises was RMB 51.237 billion, down 19.6%.
In terms of investment, real estate investment in Shanghai fell 21.2 percent from January to May compared to the same period last year. In the top three investment sectors, investment in urban infrastructure fell by 41.3% year-on-year; Industrial investment fell by 22.1% and real estate development investment by 18.0%. Among the city’s three major industrial investments, investment in primary industry fell 57.3% year-on-year, while investment in secondary industry fell 22.1%. At the same time, investments in the service sector fell by 21.0%.
In terms of consumption, total social consumption fell 48.3% and 36.5% year-on-year in April and May, respectively, based on a leading indicator of Shanghai’s total retail sales of consumer goods. Total societal consumption was RMB509.925 billion and RMB604.754 billion in January-April and January-May, down 14.2% and 18.7% year-on-year, respectively. In terms of consumable food, total sales in May were RMB27.374 billion, down 14.2% year-on-year; Total revenue from January to May was RMB 142.781 billion, down 10.7% year-on-year. Clothing and apparel sales in May were RMB23.583 billion, down 31.5% year-on-year; From January to May, it was 146.177 billion yuan, down 17.8% year-on-year. For usable products, sales in May were RMB42.632 billion, down 45.6% year-on-year; From January to May, it was RMB301.222 billion, down 21.7% year-on-year. Fuel products sales in May were RMB1.239 billion, down 73.0% year-on-year; January to May reached RMB 14.575 billion, down 30.4% year-on-year. From the changes in these consumer goods categories, it can be seen that the lockdown has had a major impact on manufacturing and consumption activities. According to the latest data on new vehicles with mandatory traffic insurance, new vehicle sales in Shanghai stood at 2,603 in May, down a sharp 95.19% from the same period in 2021. From January to May, the cumulative sales volume The Shanghai automobile market reached 150,000 units, down 51% year-on-year.
In terms of foreign trade, Shanghai is a major foreign trade city in the country, and the port of Shanghai has the largest container throughput in the world. Data from the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics shows that the total import and export volume of foreign trade in Shanghai in April was 219.149 billion RMB, down 36.5% from the same month last year. In numerical terms, exports totaled RMB 69.596 billion, down 43.8% year-on-year. Meanwhile, imports totaled RMB149.553 billion, down 32.5% year-on-year. From January to April, Shanghai achieved a total import and export volume of RMB1,226.953 billion, up 0.1% year-on-year. According to Shanghai Customs estimates, April imports and exports fell 41.6% year-on-year, with exports down 45% and imports down 37.5%. From January to April, imports and exports increased by 2.9% yoy, with exports increasing 6.7% yoy and imports falling 2% yoy. Data from the China Ports Association showed container throughput at the port of Shanghai was 3.085 million TEU in April, up 82.4% from the same period last year. Since May, the volume of operations has continued to improve with an average daily volume of operations of 112,000 TEU.
Image: Changes in Shanghai economic statistics in recent years
Source: Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics, ANBOUND. drawn by
In terms of prices, consumer prices in Shanghai increased by 4.6% year-on-year in May this year. Among them, prices of consumer goods increased by 7.5% and prices of services by 1.4%. In May, food, tobacco and alcohol prices rose 13.1% year-on-year, with vegetables, edible mushrooms and eggs rising 50.8% and 52.3%, respectively (59% and 53.4% in April). ) Prices of dried and fresh melons and fruits and aquatic products increased by 35.9% and 19.6%, respectively, and continued to rise. On the other hand, livestock and meat prices rose and fell 3.7 percent. It should be noted that the change in price figures in May reflects not only a sharp increase in daily demand, but also a fall in prices due to the declining consumption of certain commodities in the wake of the lockdown.
Based on ANBOUND’s macro research team’s tracking, the depth and duration of the decline in the city’s key economic data has far outpaced the impact of COVID-19 in early 2020 due to Shanghai’s lockdown that began in March this year. Several factors such as the characteristics of the Omicron variant, China’s stockpile of vaccines and medicines for treatment, and the understanding of COVID-9 two years after the pandemic, it must be recognized that the economic slowdown in Shanghai’s first five months is a disaster .
A clearer understanding of the impact of COVID-19 measures on Shanghai’s economy and the high price paid by businesses and ordinary citizens will help better understand the costs of strict public measures. For this reason, the departments concerned should weigh public policies more sensibly when formulating and implementing future policies.
Conclusion of the final analysis:
Shanghai is China’s largest city, a window for China to the world and a model for the world to see changes in China. If there have been no qualitative and deadly changes in the COVID-19 pandemic (such as high viral load, high rate of serious diseases, high mortality rate and high hospitalization rate), large-scale and long-term implementation would not be appropriate for Shanghai. – Block again in the future. The resulting enormous costs of such a measure would not only be unbearable for the city, but also for the citizens and the country as a whole.