The price of bitcoin could hit $3,900 in the fourth quarter of 2022

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Bitcoin price is likely to return to the 2020 lows which are around $3,900. How are the chances?

Bitcoin price breaks golden ratio support and falls to $20,000

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin price is about to reach the support between USD 14,000 – USD 20,000. It is doubtful whether Bitcoin will bounce back to $20,000. After all, the Bitcoin price hardly shows any bullish signals. In fact, before a strong rally, bitcoin price could reach around $14,000 and start an upward movement.

However, the question arises whether USD 14,000 – 20,000 is really the bottom for the BTC price. As it is still possible for Bitcoin to drop between $14,000 and $20,000, the rest of the crypto market is extremely bearish.

In particular, the supposed liquidity problem of big players in the crypto industry, such as Celsius or the well-known investment company Three Arrows Capital, is forcing the crypto industry to sit down and pay attention.

And all this after the stablecoin UST collapsed and confidence in the rest of the stablecoins suffered badly.

And despite all that, maybe it’s the calm before the storm. Indeed, the outlook for the fiat capital market is bleak given the threat of global hyperinflation, the extent of which is still difficult to assess. Is Bitcoin failing in its role as a store of value? “store of value”?

Given these opportunities, the bottoming point is clearly premature. While the $14,000-$20,000 price range remains an ideal candidate for a strong rally, it could go down a notch later.

If bitcoin breaks the support between $14,000 and $20,000, then bitcoin will find another significant support between $3,800 and $6,400.

Bitcoin price is down nearly 25% so far this week

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview

It’s only been two and a half days into the new week, and yet the price of bitcoin is already down 25% this week. Bitcoin is likely to drop another 31% from here and hit the lower support area between $14,000 and $20,000.

The indicators on the weekly chart are showing no bullish signs. Thus, MACD-Histogram keeps ticking bearish lows and MACD lines crossing as bearish. The RSI is starting to move towards the oversold areas, but it is not showing any bullish signals yet.

Possible scenario: Bitcoin falls to $14,000 and rises to $26,000

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview

Also in the daily chart, the RSI shows no bullish signals and the MACD is clearly bearish. A likely scenario would be a rush to USD 14,000, then rally around 83% and resistance at the golden ratio around USD 26,000.

After that, Bitcoin can return to support between $14,000 and $20,000. If Bitcoin bullishly breaks this support, it could correct to the $3,800 – $6,400 support area.

While it’s completely impossible to pinpoint the timing of specific turning points, Bitcoin could stand at $3,900 in Q4. Because Bitcoin is unlikely to drop directly to $3,900.

If bitcoin falls to $3,900, it will be accompanied by two-way volatility. However, with Bitcoin only shy of the $3,800 – $6,400 support, a few months could be enough for it to drop that low.

The 4-hour chart shows a bullish divergence on the RSI

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview

At least on the 4H chart, there are signs that Bitcoin could make an upward move soon. Probably even before bitcoin falls to $14,000. In fact, bitcoin, which is now around $20,000, is likely to stage a bullish rally, surging almost 30% to the next resistance near $26,000.

However, the bullish divergence on the RSI could also continue and Bitcoin is deepening into the support area for a higher bounce.

Therefore, it is likely that Bitcoin could make a strong upward move in the coming hours or days.

Now the dominance of Bitcoin is also falling

Bitcoin dominance chart from Tradingview

Now, bitcoin’s dominance is also weakening, as bitcoin is losing significant market share, falling from around 49% to 45%. Bitcoin dominance has yet to reach nearly 52% Fibonacci resistance. Instead, it now faces Fibonacci support at around 46% and 44%.

USDT market share drives Bitcoin market share

USDT dominance chart from Tradingview

As Bitcoin dominance decreases, USDT dominance increases even more. For this reason, many bitcoins are currently being sold for USDT.

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